Voters in Canada's westernmost province British Columbia are preparing to elect a provincial government on Oct. 19, with polls indicating the incumbent New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a slim lead over its main rival the Conservative Party.
Provincial elections are coming under closer scrutiny for signs of how Canadians may vote in a federal election due to take place within the next year, in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals look set to lose badly to the federal Conservatives.
In British Columbia, a vast mountainous province with resources including natural gas and forestry, the top election issues are healthcare, housing and high living costs, echoing voter concerns at a national level.
There is no affiliation between the federal and provincial Conservatives in British Columbia, but John Rustad's right-leaning provincial party has been rapidly gaining ground over the last year and in August merged with the center-right B.C. United Party, previously known as the B.C. Liberals.
The left-leaning NDP, led by incumbent Premier David Eby, appears to have an edge over Rustad's Conservatives in the latest polls but many voters are unimpressed with the provincial government's record on issues such as cost of living, public safety and a much-criticized attempt to allow open use of some illegal drugs, analysts said.
"The NDP's advantage is not necessarily predicated by strong enthusiasm for the party that has been in power seven years," Shachi Kurl, president of polling firm Angus Reid, said in a news release this week.
"Fully half of New Democrat supporters say they are backing the party because they 'really dislike' the other options available to them."
Rustad came off worst in a recent leaders' debate, analysts said, and has also been criticized for past comments around regretting getting vaccinated against COVID-19 and questioning climate change science.
An Angus Reid poll published this week showed the 45% of voters intend to vote for the NDP, versus 40% for the Conservatives. A small minority intend to vote for the B.C. Green Party.
The outcome of the election could have a major impact on British Columbia's climate policies, with Rustad promising to scrap the province's carbon tax - which predates an increasingly unpopular federal carbon tax - and clean fuel standard, and significantly expand its nascent liquefied natural gas industry.
Canada's first liquefied natural gas export terminal, the Shell-led LNG Canada project, is due to start operating next year in northern British Columbia.
Even so, climate has been a less prominent issue in this election campaign than in previous years, said Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia.
"The cost-of-living crisis has displaced attention on other issues and post-pandemic we are still seeing shortages of medical staff and rural areas emergency rooms are routinely closed," Harrison said. "These issues are really top of mind for voters."
