Justin Trudeau's successor as Liberal leader and Canada's prime minister will soon face a bruising election against a sharp-tongued populist riding a wave of anti-Trudeau sentiment.
Poll after poll has shown career politician Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party handily winning Canada's next federal election, which by law must be held by Oct. 20 and may happen earlier.
Poilievre, 45, took the Conservative helm in 2022, framing himself as a champion of common people fighting a perceived elite, drawing comparisons to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
An Angus Reid poll published on Friday, before Trudeau announced his intent to resign once his party finds a new leader, found Poilievre would beat any of the expected candidates for Liberal leader.
Poilievre largely owes his rise to his acerbic communication style, voter fatigue with Trudeau and frustration with inflation, observers said. He was ejected from the House of Commons in April for calling Trudeau a "wacko."
"Pierre Poilievre has really tapped into the frustrations of Canadians on affordability," said Jamie Ellerton, principal of public relations firm Conaptus and a former Conservative staffer.
"There's clearly a desire for change."
While he has offered few detailed policies, Poilievre capitalizes on three-word slogans such as "axe the tax," referring to Trudeau's unpopular carbon price that aims to reduce emissions. Poilievre has not said if he will remove the tax only for consumers, many of whom already receive a rebate, or also for industry, but has said he would present a different plan to slow climate change.
A spokesperson for Poilievre did not respond to requests for comment.
Poilievre's timing helps: Trudeau's government has been in power for nine years.
"The average shelf life of prime ministers has been a decade," said University of Toronto politics professor emeritus Nelson Wiseman.
Trump, speaking on Monday before Trudeau announced his plan to resign, said he was looking forward to working with Poilievre if he wins the next Canadian election.
"It would be very good. Our views would be more aligned, certainly," Trump told the Hugh Hewitt radio show.
Even so, Trump said on Tuesday he might use "economic force" to make Canada a U.S. state. Both Trudeau and Poilievre said on social media that would never happen.
TRUCKER CONVOY
Poilievre gained prominence by expressing sympathy for a trucker convoy protesting vaccine mandates and the government more broadly in 2022. Like Trump, he often criticizes the media.
But their interests are different, as Trump threatens broad tariffs that would cripple Canada's economy, which relies on exports to the U.S.
"In some respects, (Poilievre) won't be that different from Trudeau on the trade files, simply because the issues are the same, the goals are the same," said Western University politics associate professor Adam Harmes.
The Conservatives would prefer to run against Trudeau in an election, given his unpopularity.
Trudeau’s impending resignation poses a problem for the Conservatives, Harmes said. But “they’re still going to win the next election. It would take some sort of black-swan event for them not to."
Anticipating Trudeau's departure, the Conservatives have widened their attacks to the Liberal Party, branding potential leadership candidate Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada, “Carbon Tax Carney,” Harmes said.
Carney said on Monday he was considering a leadership bid.
Even without Trudeau as a foil, the Conservatives have the momentum, Wiseman said.
"Poilievre could go to sleep now, and they're going to win a big majority."
Following through on simple Conservative slogans such as "build the homes" could be more difficult, Harmes said.
"It will be interesting to see how much people like Pierre Poilievre for his own sake," said University of Regina professor Jim Farney. "Rather than just a choice for change."
