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A person shops in the beverage aisle at a grocery store in Toronto, Ontario, Canada November 22, 2022. Carlos Osorio
A person shops in the beverage aisle at a grocery store in Toronto, Ontario, Canada November 22, 2022. Carlos Osorio
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Canada's inflation falls to 27-month low of 2.8% led by lower energy costs

July 18th, 2023 | 12:34 PM WORLD Americas 2

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By Steve Scherer, Ismail Shakil

Canada's annual inflation rate dropped more than expected to a 27-month low of 2.8% in June, data showed on Tuesday, but excluding energy prices inflation was still barely inching lower after 10 interest rate hikes in less than 18 months.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation to drop to 3.0% from 3.4% in May. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.1%, Statistics Canada said, which was also lower than the 0.3% forecast.

June's reading, which benefited from a comparison to the four-decade high inflation a year earlier, means the annual rate was within the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% control range for the first time since March 2021. The bank targets 2% inflation.

"Inflation is definitely moving in the right direction, but we're seeing stickier and more persistent core measures," said Michael Greenberg, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.

Excluding food and energy, prices rose 3.5% compared with a 4.0% rise in May. Grocery prices rose 9.1% year-over-year in June, a tick higher than the increase recorded in May. Prices of food from restaurants slowed slightly in June from May.

The average of two of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) core measures of underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, came in at 3.8% compared with 3.9% in May.

The Bank of Canada last week raised rates to a 22-year high of 5.0% and said it could hike them further if fresh data shows inflation is stalling above its target.

The central bank, citing excess demand, said last week that it expects inflation to remain around 3% over the next year before dropping to the bank's 2% target by mid-2025, six months later than previously anticipated.

"We're still not at 2%," said Jules Boudreau, senior economist at Mackenzie Investments. "So there's still some work to be done. But policy is probably restrictive enough at the moment to do that."

The price of gasoline, which led the slowdown, fell 21.6% compared with June 2022 when China, the largest importer of crude oil, eased some COVID-19 public health restrictions that contributed to higher global demand.

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