A revolt by the Wagner militia in Russia poses a diplomatic quandary for Mali and Central African Republic (CAR), where forces from the mercenary group have played an increasingly central role in long-running internal conflicts.
Both countries have sought closer ties with Russia and military support to fight the militants, saying in the past that their military cooperation agreements are with Russia rather than with Wagner.
"(Wagner's) presence in Mali is sponsored by the Kremlin and if Wagner is at odds with the Kremlin ... naturally Mali will suffer the consequences on the security front," said Malian political analyst Bassirou Doumbia.
Mali, where military authorities seized power in coups in 2020 and 2021, is battling a years-long Islamist insurgency. It has said Russian forces there are not Wagner mercenaries but trainers helping local troops with equipment bought from Russia.
But the alliance has soured relations with the United Nations and alienated Western powers, who say the fighters there are Wagner forces and allege they have committed possible war crimes alongside Mali forces.
Mali's government and Russia have denied the allegations.
Wagner's continued presence in Mali amid the ongoing insurrection in Russia could prove problematic for Bamako's relations with Moscow, which last year committed to send Mali shipments of fuel, fertiliser and food worth about $100 million.
"(The) exact consequences for Mali really depend on factors largely unknown such as the organisational autonomy of Wagner and their chain of command, and, of course, whether things escalate or not between (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Wagner," said Yvan Guichaoua, senior lecturer at the Brussels School of International Studies.
He said there were no reports of unexpected troop movements in Mali as of Saturday morning.
REBEL INSURGENCIES
The power struggle in Russia could also have significant ramifications for Central African Republic, where hundreds of Russian operatives including many from the Wagner Group have been helping the government fight several rebel insurgencies since 2018.
Both CAR and Mali have been drawn increasingly into Russia's orbit in recent years as the Kremlin sought greater influence in Francophone Africa to the dismay of former colonial power France, which has faced anti-French protests in the region and worsening relations with several West African governments.
In February, French President Emmanuel Macron described the deployment of Wagner Group troops in Africa as the "life insurance of failing regimes in Africa" that will only sow misery.
A suspension of Wagner operations in Africa could impact the group's finances. The United States last October accused the mercenaries of exploiting natural resources in CAR, Mali and elsewhere to fund fighting in Ukraine - a charge Russia rejected at the time.
The group has cemented strong ties with several African governments over the past decade with operations in at least eight African nations, according to leaked U.S. documents, including Mali, Central African Republic, and Libya.
