A lightning advance in Congo's mineral-rich eastern borderlands is set to boost the M23 rebellion's illegal mining revenues, with analysts predicting a further surge in illicit trade in minerals including coltan and gold through neighbouring Rwanda.
The rebels, which Rwanda denies supporting, have long been funded at least in part by the illicit mineral trade. Those revenue flows intensified after M23 - the latest in a long line of Tutsi-led rebellions - seized the coltan-rich Rubaya area in April, U.N. experts found.
Congo is the world's top producer of tantalum and cobalt, a key component in batteries for electric vehicles and mobile phones, and is also home to significant coltan and gold deposits.
"Mineral exports from Rwanda are now over a billion dollars a year," said Jason Stearns, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University and former U.N. investigator.
"That's about double what they were two years ago. And we don't know how much, but a fair chunk of that is from the DRC."
Rwanda's ambassador-at-large for the Great Lakes region Vincent Karega rejected the idea that M23 was trafficking Congolese minerals. He did not directly address allegations that his government is involved in their illicit trade.
"Do you think it's possible to fight and still have time to mine natural resources and refine them?" said Karega, who has been sent to the border with Congo to oversee the crisis.
LACK OF TRANSPARENCY
Rebels recently captured the mining town Lumbishi in South Kivu province. Numbi, an eastern mining area in South Kivu rich in gold, tourmaline, and tin, tantalum and tungsten - so-called 3T minerals used in computers and mobile phones - is also under threat.
"Lumbishi and its gold mines are likely to prove a significant source of revenue for M23, in part because gold is much easier to monetise than coltan and tin," said Gregory Mthembu-Salter, director of Phuzumoya Consulting.
He said gold was likely to make its way to Dubai via Rwanda and possibly Kenya.
In 2023, UAE declared importing about $885 million in gold from Rwanda, a 75% jump from the previous five-year average, according to a Reuters analysis of U.N. Comtrade data. Rwanda is not a major gold producer.
In addition to exerting administrative control over Rubaya, M23 has also created a monopoly for the export of coltan to Rwanda from the nearby Bibatama mine, U.N. experts said in a December report. The mine is one of the world's largest deposits of coltan, used in cellphones and laptops.
The group collected at least $800,000 per month in taxes on coltan production and trade, according to the report, with Congolese output mixed in with Rwandan production.
Jean Pierre Okenda, a Congo-based rights lawyer specialised in extractive industries, said Rwanda was not a member of any international transparency initiatives, making it hard to track its minerals.
"There is a lack of transparency of the mining operations and... a lack of transparency of the geological information," he said.
