Shares in Swedbank rose 5% at the opening on Thursday after the Swedish lender said in a statement on Wednesday that it had been informed that the investigation had ended.
The DOJ has not said why it closed the investigation.
The DOJ probe was the most serious part of Swedbank’s legal troubles tied to the massive Baltic money-laundering scandal that first erupted at Danske Bank. Analysts had expected Swedbank might face a hefty U.S. penalty, with Citi estimating a 6 billion Swedish crown ($651.69 million) fine in 2026.
"We therefore view the conclusion – and the lack of a fine - as an unambiguous positive," Citi said.
The Securities and Exchange Commission closed its investigation into the same matter last year, without issuing any fine.
The bank was caught up in a regional money laundering scandal originating with Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO), which said in 2018 that 200 billion euros ($232.90 billion) of suspicious funds moved through its Estonia branch between 2007 and 2015.
The scandal sent the Swedbank share tumbling by a third in 2020 and CEO Birgitte Bonnesen, who led the bank between 2016 and 2019, was found guilty of gross fraud in 2024 over misleading statements and sentenced to 15 months in prison, although her case is now on appeal to the Supreme Court.
Sweden's financial watchdog hit Swedbank with a then-record fine of 4 billion crowns in 2020 for serious deficiencies in its anti-money-laundering work.
A third investigation by the Department of Financial Services in New York is still ongoing.
"They have not been the agency from which investors expect the majority of penalties," Citi said in the note.
($1 = 9.2068 Swedish crowns)
