The firms exiting the so-called Amazon Soy Moratorium, which has saved millions of acres of tropical forest over nearly two decades, are looking to shield themselves from a new state law in Mato Grosso, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Starting in January, the state will strip tax incentives from companies taking part in the conservation program. Mato Grosso grew some 51 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, more than Argentina.

A preliminary report from state auditors in April found that grains traders had benefited from tax incentives worth about 4.7 billion reais ($840 million) between 2019 and 2024.

ADM (ADM.N) and Bunge (BG.N) were the top beneficiaries of tax incentives, receiving about 1.5 billion reais ($269 million) each, said Sergio Ricardo, head of the Mato Grosso state audit court.

U.S.-based ADM, Bunge and Cargill, as well as China's Cofco and Brazil's Amaggi, are signatories of the pact with facilities in Mato Grosso that have benefited from state tax incentives. It was not clear which of the firms would break immediately from the moratorium.

Cargill referred questions to industry group Abiove, which did not respond to requests for comment. ADM, Bunge, Cofco, Amaggi and grain exporter group Anec did not respond to questions.

"Most companies will choose not to lose the tax incentives and will withdraw from the agreement," said one of the sources, adding that the departures would effectively end a pact signed in 2006 with the federal government and conservation groups.

The moratorium is considered one of the most important forces slowing deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon over the past two decades as it bars signatories from buying soybeans from farmers who plant on land deforested after July 2008.

Researchers estimate that an area of the rainforest the size of Ireland would have been lost to soy farms in Brazil without the moratorium and related conservation efforts, compared to the pace of expansion in neighboring countries such as Bolivia.

The Mato Grosso law, which lawmakers passed in 2023, is the latest example of a global retreat from pacts and policies to curb climate change, even as temperatures break records, driven by rising fossil fuel use and deforestation.

Critics of the soy moratorium say that the pact restricts the market and hurts farmers. Farming groups in Mato Grosso say the protocol reduces the income and economic development of the state.

"Companies could choose to keep their zero-deforestation commitments," said Cristiane Mazzetti, who oversees the moratorium for Greenpeace. "It's a dangerous precedent, and it's not what we need in a moment of climate emergency," she added.

Brazil's federal government has argued in court against the new Mato Grosso law stripping tax breaks from traders due to their environmental commitments.

"If the Mato Grosso government really removes those incentives, we have heard that some, or many, companies will in fact abandon the moratorium for economic reasons," said Andre Lima, a senior Environment Ministry official tasked with combating deforestation. He added that firms had not officially informed the ministry of their plans.

FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has vowed an "ecological transformation" of the Brazilian economy, capped off with the United Nations climate summit hosted in the Amazon last month.

But in domestic politics, his leftist government is often fighting a rearguard battle to protect the world's largest rainforest from a farm lobby with the upper hand in Congress.

The unraveling of the Amazon Soy Moratorium is likely to embolden those rural powerbrokers and their allies. This year the farm lobby has successfully gutted environmental permitting laws and stripped some protections from Indigenous lands.

The trend has caught the attention of farmer groups in Europe arguing to block a free trade agreement between the European Union and South America's Mercosur due to the impact of Brazilian agribusiness on vital ecosystems.

Brazil's Supreme Court has barred some but not all of the farm lobby's agenda in Congress, based on constitutional protections for the environment and Indigenous peoples.

Environmentalists warn that the end of the soy moratorium could pave the way to dismantle other environmental protections in the world's largest soybean producer, including part of Brazil's forestry code restricting farmers from felling trees on 80% of their properties in the Amazon.

In recent years, soybean farmers pushed state lawmakers in Mato Grosso, Rondonia and Maranhao to strip tax benefits from companies taking part in environmental pacts more restrictive than Brazilian law.

It remains unclear which environmental commitments outside the soy moratorium will trigger those new state laws, which could threaten a range of other companies, including cellulose producers and meatpackers.

Brazilian antitrust agency CADE has separately opened an investigation of the soy moratorium for a potential breach of competition rules. For nearly two decades, trading firms have shared the cost of monitoring soy farms in the Amazon to avoid buying from those planting on newly deforested land.

Starting in January, CADE has ordered traders "to refrain from collecting, storing, sharing, or disseminating commercial information related to the sale, production, or acquisition of soybeans."

Soy farmers in Mato Grosso have also sued grain traders for roughly $180 million over their role in the pact.

In temporary rulings, Supreme Court Justice Flavio Dino stopped the antitrust investigation, but let the Mato Grosso law take effect. Environmental groups are still trying to block the state law ahead of a final court ruling on the issue.

($1 = 5.56 reais)