China's greenhouse emissions could start going into "structural decline" as early as next year as power generation from fossil fuels starts to fall, analysis from the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) showed.
The world's biggest producer of climate-warming greenhouse gases has pledged to bring its emissions to a peak "before 2030", but its construction of new coal-fired power plants has raised concerns that carbon dioxide (CO2) would peak at a much higher level than previously estimated.
The country's stance on fossil fuels is expected to be a key issue at COP28 climate talks in Dubai this month, with top envoy Xie Zhenhua telling diplomats in September that a phase-out was "unrealistic".
However, CREA's lead analyst, Lauri Myllyvirta, said emissions could start to go into "structural decline" as early as 2024, despite an estimated rebound of 4.7% year on year in the third quarter of 2023.
Factors such as record levels of new renewable installations, a rebound in hydropower generation and a moderate economic recovery that has not relied on infrastructural investment "all but guarantee" a decline in China's CO2 emissions next year, he said.
"If coal interests fail to stall the expansion of China's wind and solar capacity, then low-carbon energy growth would be sufficient to cover rising electricity demand beyond 2024," he wrote in an analysis published by Carbon Brief on Monday. "This would push fossil fuel use - and emissions - into an extended period of structural decline."
