As earnings season goes into full swing, bullish investors hope solid corporate results will stem a tumble in technology shares that has cooled this year’s U.S. stock rally.
The S&P 500’s technology sector (.SPLRCT) has dropped nearly 6% in just over a week, shedding about $900 billion in market value as growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a second Donald Trump presidency draw money away from this year’s winners and into sectors that have languished in 2024.
Second-quarter earnings could help tech reclaim the spotlight. Tesla (TSLA.O) and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) both report on Tuesday, kicking off results from the "Magnificent Seven" megacap group of stocks that have propelled markets since early 2023. Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Apple (AAPL.O) are set to report the following week.
Big tech stocks "have been leading the charge, and it's for a good reason," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "They're making money, they're growing earnings, they're owning their niche."
Strong results from the market’s leaders could assuage some of the worries that have recently dogged megacaps, including concerns over stretched valuations and an advance highlighted by eye-watering gains in stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA.O), which is up 145% this year despite a recent dip.
On the other hand, signs that profits are flagging or artificial intelligence-related spending is less than anticipated would test the narrative of tech dominance that has boosted stocks this year. That could turn quickly into a problem for broader markets: Alphabet, Tesla, Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Microsoft, Meta Platforms (META.O), Apple and Nvidia have accounted for around 60% of the S&P 500’s gain this year.
Corporate results for the market’s leaders are expected to meet a high bar. The tech sector is projected to increase year-over-year earnings by 17%, and earnings for the communication services sector (.SPLRCL) -- which includes Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta -- is seen rising about 22%. Such gains would outpace the 11% estimated rise for the S&P 500 overall, according to LSEG IBES.
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, believes many investors were caught off guard by an inflation report earlier this month that all-but-cemented expectations of a September rate cut by the Fed, sparking a rotation into areas of the market that have struggled under tighter monetary policy.
The move out of tech accelerated this week, after a failed assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend appeared to boost his standing in the presidential race.
In addition, semiconductor shares were hit hard after a report earlier this week said the United States was mulling tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index (.SOX) has tumbled about 8% since last week.
"What we're advising investors to do is use some of the pullbacks in these areas as an opportunity to allocate on a longer-term basis," said Saglimbene, who believes the upcoming earnings reports could ease the selling pressure on Big Tech.
To be sure, the widening of gains to other parts of the market has heartened some investors over the durability over the rally in stocks this year.
During the recent rotation, the number of stocks gaining compared to those declining over five days reached its highest rate since November, according to Ned Davis Research.
Historically, when gainers outnumber decliners by at least 2.5 times, as has been the case in this recent five-day period, the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 4.5% over the next three months, according to NDR.
"The risk is that mega-caps pull the popular averages lower, but history suggests that strong breadth improvements have been bullish for stocks moving forward," Ned Davis strategists said in a report on Wednesday.
