The Federal Reserve is seen waiting until June to start cutting interest rates after a government report showed stronger than expected jobs growth last month that eased concern about the state of the labor market as President Donald Trump moves to put sweeping tariffs on imports from around the globe.
Still, contracts continue to price a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by year end, and some chance of a fifth cut, as investors worry an escalating trade war will sharply slow economic growth. Bets in short-term U.S. interest-rate futures on more aggressive Fed policy easing had surged overnight, after China announced its own tariffs to counter new U.S. import levies.
"Fed officials have been saying that they are in a position where they can afford to be patient," wrote Jefferies economist Thomas Simons. "This data suggests to us that they will continue to preach patience."
