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Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers takes part in a news conference, announcing an interest rate decision in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada January 25, 2023. Blair Gable
Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers takes part in a news conference, announcing an interest rate decision in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada January 25, 2023. Blair Gable
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Bank of Canada: era of very low rates is likely over, people and firms must adjust

November 9th, 2023 | 16:48 PM MARKETS Rates & Bonds 2

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Russia's state debt-servicing costs will rise by 23% in 2026
Fitch boosts Italy's rating on improved fiscal performance, political stability
Fitch revises Poland's outlook to 'negative' on weakening public finances
Fitch maintains Romania's investment-grade rating but budget strains remain
By Reuters

By Steve Scherer and David Ljunggren

OTTAWA, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada (BoC) on Thursday said the era of super-low interest rates was likely over and warned businesses and households to plan for higher borrowing costs than they have been used to in recent years.

During the years of the pandemic, the central bank's policy rate was just 0.25% most of the time and never topped 1.75%. It is now at a 22-year high of 5.0%.

And at a time of higher government debt and geopolitical risks including wars in Ukraine and in Israel, long-term market rates have also moved higher.

"It's not hard to see a world where interest rates are persistently higher than what people have grown used to," Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers told Advocis Vancouver, an association of financial advisors on the West Coast.

Rogers said she wanted "to stress the importance of adjusting proactively to a future where interest rates may be higher than they've been over the past 15 years".

The bank increased rates 10 times between March 2022 and this July to tame inflation that peaked at more than 8% last year. It left rates on hold last month and said it still could hike again if needed.

The bank forecasts inflation will come down slowly and reach its 2% target only at the end of 2025.

Some households already are finding it harder to deal with existing debt, as delinquency rates on credit cards, car loans and unsecured lines of credit have returned to or have slightly surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, Rogers said.

While delinquency rates on mortgages are still lower than before the pandemic, the 60% of fixed-rate mortgage holders who must renew their mortgages by end-2026 "may face significantly higher payments", she said.

Some members of the BoC's policy-setting governing council saw the likely need for further interest-rate hikes when they left borrowing costs on hold on Oct. 25, minutes published on Wednesday showed.

However, economists expect the central bank to start easing interest rates as soon as April and money markets see them coming down around mid-year.

(Reporting by Steve Scherer, editing by David Ljunggren)

((Reuters Ottawa bureau, [email protected]))

Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/

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