Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he anticipates slower progress on inflation in coming months and as a result now sees the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate only a quarter of a percentage point by the end of this year.
With less progress on inflation and businesses expected to add the cost of coming tariffs to their prices, "the appropriate path for policy is also going to be pushed back," Bostic said in an interview on Bloomberg.
Bostic had previously expected the Fed would cut rates twice this year, a view his colleagues largely maintained at their meeting last week when the median policymaker projection saw two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025.
But several officials moved their outlook higher even though the median did not change. Bostic said he was reacting to anticipated slower progress on inflation and to the widespread sense he is getting from business contacts that they plan to pass along coming import taxes to consumers.
President Donald Trump has already rolled out new tariffs on China and imported metals, with plans to hike levies on Mexico, Canada and many other countries next month.
Although in theory higher tariffs might cause only a one-time jump in prices, Bostic said he is concerned this moment might be different because businesses and consumers may have become conditioned to higher inflation because of the recent experience in the aftermath of the pandemic.
For businesses "a complete pass-through is the expectation," Bostic said, in part because business executives don't feel they will lose market share.
"They think consumers are going to be able to manage," said Bostic, who is not a voter on Fed interest rate policy this year.
