Argentine peso futures have weakened sharply in recent days as traders place tentative bets on a faster depreciation of the embattled currency amid uncertainty over the exchange rate regime ahead of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
The April peso future contract has weakened to around 1,180 per dollar from 1,125 on April 9 when the IMF announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Argentina over a new $20 billion loan program to help bolster depleted reserves.
That's seen traders playing a guessing game on what that might mean for the currency, which is currently held in check by strict capital controls and a so-called crawling peg, which allows it to depreciate at 1% each month currently.
Analysts have predicted some sort of devaluation, but there is little consensus. The government has moved to rule out a sharp devaluation, but libertarian President Javier Milei has long wanted to unravel currency controls, in place since 2019.
Traders are divided on what might happen with exchange rate policy. Some say there will be devaluation, others rule that out, while some predict the creation of a currency band that would in effect allow the peso to weaken within a certain limit.
That uncertainty and the expected board approval for the new loan program on Friday have hit peso futures, though prices did strengthen slightly after a sharp drop on Thursday.
"The market remains attentive to the signing of the agreement with the IMF and the definitions regarding the exchange rate," Argentina-based settlement and clearing agency Cohen said in a note.
"This context, combined with global contagion, is what has led to a rise in dollar futures contracts."
