U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports from Mexico carry an outsized risk for farmers in Jacksonville, Illinois, as retaliation by Mexico could prompt corn buyers in that country to turn to rival growers in South America.
Mexico, the world's top corn importer, is a crucial market for U.S. farmers, at a time when grain prices have slumped and costs are rising for seeds and chemicals needed to produce crops
Farmers around Jacksonville, a city of about 17,000 people, benefit more than most from Mexican demand. They live near a grain facility that loads corn onto railcars before it travels more than 1,000 miles to livestock producers south of the border.
The farmers drive from up to 60 miles away to make sales to the facility owned by privately held crop handler Bartlett, which growers said often pays higher prices for their harvests than other buyers do.
Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada have fed fears Mexico may respond with duties that could reduce its demand for American goods, such as corn. China already retaliated on Tuesday against fresh U.S. tariffs, with hikes to import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products.
Lower grain prices from reduced shipments to Mexico threaten all U.S. farmers, though those in Illinois would be hit particularly hard. About 60% of all corn exports to Mexico were by train last year, and 40% of those train movements originated in Illinois, according to U.S. government data.
"We need their markets and I hope that they need us, but it's a competitive world," said Marty Marr, 70, who farms with his sons and plans to plant corn on about 2,000 acres near Jacksonville this spring.
Marr said he worries that tit-for-tat tariffs may prompt Mexico to buy more corn from South American suppliers and less from the U.S.
That would be painful. About 36% of total U.S. corn export commitments are for sales to Mexico in the marketing year that ends in August, U.S. government export sales data show.
"It's so important that we maintain good relations with them," Marr said.
Trump's trade policies and tariffs on China during his first term damaged American farm sales. U.S. farmers never fully recovered the market share they lost for soybean exports when China focused tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods in retaliation for Trump's levies.
Illinois is a top supplier of U.S. corn to Mexico because it is the No. 2 corn producing state, and a rail hub in Chicago connects farmers to buyers south of the border.
Overall, about a third of the corn grown in Illinois is exported, said Collin Watters, director of exports and logistics for the Illinois Corn Growers Association. By contrast, top producer Iowa exports about 15% of its corn, according to the Iowa Corn Growers Association.
"The direct rail access into Mexico, it's a real advantage for us," Watters said. "But the flipside is that there's a lot of uncertainty right now."
Jacksonville farmer Dale Hadden, 61, sells corn to Bartlett during the autumn harvest, when growing supplies generally pressure prices. Bartlett often offers higher prices than other handlers for its purchases to supply Mexico on the Kansas City Southern railway, he said.
"They have the best bid," Hadden said.
Bartlett employees declined to comment at their South Jacksonville facility, where railcars were parked on tracks in a long line. The company's website says it is a leading U.S. exporter of grain to Mexico.
Less than 10 minutes away by car, shoppers in downtown Jacksonville could hear train whistles blowing while they browsed at clothing and record stores around a historic square with a towering Civil War monument.
Residents of the 200-year-old city said they are worried that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will raise prices for goods sold in the U.S. Still, they said Trump should have time to pursue his plans. About 65% of voters in Jacksonville's county chose Trump in the 2024 election.
"He's trying things that have been very unorthodox but at least he's not in the same rut doing what everybody is telling him to do," said Sue Fox, 68, who supported Trump and runs Times Square Sewing Complex in Jacksonville.
Many farmers said they want to avoid the type of extended trade disruptions that led Trump to pay them billions of dollars in aid to offset lost exports to China during his first term.
"That is absolutely not what the farmers want," said Dan Newton, 64, a farm manager in Jacksonville.
