The U.S. and Israel have used thousands of munitions in their air campaign against Iran. Most, if not all of them, contain tungsten - a super-hard metal that allows missiles to penetrate armour or underground bunkers.
Unlike a tungsten carbide drill bit, which can be recycled, tungsten used in munitions is consumed on detonation. It is gone for good.
The Iran war, coming on top of Ukraine - now in its fifth year - is draining stocks not just of missiles but of the metals that make them so lethally efficient.
Replacing what has been used will be challenging. The tungsten market was already struggling before China tightened its export controls in February 2025 in response to U.S. tariffs. Now it is in crisis.
TUNGSTEN ROCKET
Tungsten prices have gone parabolic ever since. The Rotterdam market for ammonium paratungstate (APT), an intermediate product used to make tungsten metal, has surged from under $400 per metric ton a year ago to over $2,200, according to Chinese price reporting agency Shanghai Metals Market.
That makes tungsten one of the strongest-performing commodities in recent months, outpacing gains in copper, gold and oil.
According to consultancy Project Blue, citing U.S. Geological Survey data, tungsten products are now trading at their highest level in at least 90 years.
China accounts for around 80% of global mined production, according to the USGS, and is leveraging its dominance of tungsten supply just as it is doing in the rare earths sector.
Tungsten exports have fallen by nearly 40% since the new controls were implemented, according to William Parry-Jones, founder of Wolfram Advisory, a tungsten consultancy.
There is a second problem beyond the export curbs. Project Blue estimates that China's mined production fell 10% year-on-year to 61,000 tons in 2025, due to lower government quotas and environmental clampdowns on smaller miners.
More tungsten is also being absorbed by China's own domestic market. Export volumes from the world's largest producer would likely be falling even without the new restrictions.
PRIMING THE PIPELINE
Western supply is improving, albeit from a low base. Non-Chinese production rose by 20% year-on-year to 19,000 tons last year, Project Blue estimates.
That was largely down to the start of the Boguty mine in Kazakhstan, a country that is emerging as a potential key link in a non-Chinese tungsten supply chain.
U.S. mining investment company Cove Capital signed a deal in November to lead development of another large tungsten deposit in Kazakhstan, backed by $900 million from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
The Pentagon sought fresh supplies of 13 critical minerals — including tungsten — from industry partners the day before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began.
Federal awards have gone to Guardian Metal Resources (GMET.L) to fund studies into the Pilot Mountain deposit in Nevada and to Amermin for enhanced recycling capacity.
The problem is that core components of this expanding portfolio are still years away from actually producing metal.
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
That sets the stage for increased competition between defence and civilian sectors for available supply.
The defence sector accounted for around 10% of global consumption last year, according to Project Blue.
That ratio is only going to rise as Western countries, particularly the U.S., look to rebuild stocks of munitions after the drain caused by the war in Ukraine and now the missile-intensive hostilities in the Gulf.
Military buyers will always be able to outbid civilian buyers, which could spell trouble ahead for high-end manufacturers using tungsten in semiconductors, printed circuit boards and solar panels.
Electronics is a fast-growing component of tungsten demand, complementing the metal's usage in cemented carbide tools in the construction, mining and oil and gas sectors.
MINERALS BOTTLENECK
Tungsten is only one of many critical minerals used in munitions.
The Tomahawk cruise missile, for example, is thought to contain up to 18 critical metals across its guidance, electronics and warhead systems, although detailed information is classified.
Amanda van Dyke, founder of the Critical Minerals Hub, argues that "missile math is mineral math" and that the current Gulf conflict amounts to a massive "mineral sink."
But most of the minerals in question are currently produced in China.
The Iran war will reinforce the West's drive for greater mineral autonomy. But building multiple new supply chains from mine to processing to product is going to take time.
Time the West may no longer have.
(The opinions expressed here are those of Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)
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