The world's largest crude importer has quietly built a track record of buying excess oil to build inventories when its refiners and government deem prices to be cheap, and conversely pull back on imports when prices rise too high, or too rapidly.

Because the shifts in imports happen with a lag of several months, given the time between when a cargo is arranged and delivered, it is not immediately obvious to analysts and reporters covering the crude market.

However, there are some early signs that China is shifting its imports to favour more competitively priced crudes, while also trimming imports from April onwards.

This is likely being done as crude oil prices have risen sharply in recent weeks amid the uncertainty created by tensions between the United States and Iran, with concern that a U.S. military strike may result in Iranian retaliation against oil installations and tankers in the vital Persian Gulf area.

Global benchmark Brent futures hit the highest in nearly seven months on February 23, reaching $72.50 a barrel, and have rallied 23% since the seven-month low of $58.72 on December 16.

The rise in Brent has made crudes that are priced against it more expensive on a relative basis, such as those from West African producers Nigeria and Angola.

In turn this has led to producers offering bigger discounts in order to clear cargoes, with traders reporting that some West African grades are being sold at discounts of up to $5 a barrel over the Dated Brent benchmark, up from around $3 earlier this month.

China is often seen as a buyer of last resort for West African crudes, and the high discounts on offer show that there is limited appetite for extra cargoes.

Higher freight rates are also making it more expensive to land West African crudes in China, especially since Middle East producers have been lowering their prices in recent months.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, cut its official selling price (OSP) for its main Arab Light grade for Asian refiners for a fourth month for March-loading cargoes.

The March OSP for Arab Light crude was set at parity with the Oman/Dubai average, down from a premium of $0.30 a barrel in February, the lowest since December 2020, according to Reuters' data.

China has responded by buying more Saudi crude as well as other similar grades from Gulf producers.

AFRICA DIP

Data from commodity analysts Kpler also show China is paring back on cargoes from Africa, with arrivals in February and March below the level of the fourth quarter of last year.

China's imports from Africa are forecast at 1.04 million barrels per day expected in March and 978,000 bpd in February, down from 1.25 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Kpler data.

There is a large degree of fungibility between grades such as Arab Light and Nigeria's Bonny Light and Angola's Cabinda, given similar API gravity and sulphur contents.

Another grade that is similar is Russia's Urals, and China looks to be snapping up cargoes at heavy discounts after the other major Russian buyer India agreed with the United States as part of a trade deal to buy less of the sanctioned crude.

China's imports of Russian crude from Europe, which is where Urals loads, are expected to be 824,000 bpd in February, up from 741,000 bpd in January and 444,000 bpd in December.

Overall, what appears to be happening is that China is buying up heavily discounted Russian crude, and cutting back on more expensive Brent-priced grades.

But it also may be trimming the overall volume it imports given the recent rally in prices, just as it did during the 12-day conflict in June last year between Israel, supported by the United States, and Iran.

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The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.