China's exports are likely to have risen at the slowest pace in five months in September, suggesting manufacturers are no longer rushing out orders ahead of tariffs from several trade partners and that global demand for Chinese goods is softening.
Trade data on Monday is expected to show outbound shipments grew 6.0% year-on-year by value, according to the median forecast of 20 economists in a Reuters poll, down from the 8.7% pace recorded in August.
Inbound shipments are forecast to have increased by 0.9% last month, up from the 0.5% rise recorded in August, which would encourage Chinese policymakers wrestling to revive domestic demand.
China's exports grew at their fastest pace in nearly 1-1/2 years in August, but economists cautioned that officials in the world's second-largest economy should avoid becoming too reliant on global demand as they work to bolster overall growth.
Chinese officials on Tuesday said they were "fully confident" of achieving the government's full-year growth target of around 5% but refrained from introducing strong fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had anticipated more policy support.
On Saturday, China's finance ministry will detail plans to boost the economy at a highly anticipated news conference.
Manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month in September, with new export orders falling to their worst in 7 months. Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.
The European Commission last week saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the U.S. and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.
Meanwhile, South Korea's exports to China, a leading indicator of its imports, moderated last month compared to August owing to strong demand for semiconductors.
China's September trade surplus is forecast at $89.80 billion, according to the poll, down from $91.02 billion in August.
