The global refined copper market is expected to swing to a deficit of 150,000 metric tons in 2026 from the previously expected surplus of 209,000 tons due to slower production growth, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.
Copper prices briefly hit a 16-month peak on Wednesday due to worries about potential shortages from a series of recent mine disruptions in Indonesia, Chile and Congo.
These incidents prompted the ICSG to revise down its forecast for the 2025 global mine production growth to 1.4% from 2.3% it expected in April, it said in a statement on Wednesday.
For 2025, these incidents will narrow down the surplus in the refined copper market to 178,000 tons from the previously expected 289,000 tons.
In 2026, the industry body expects the mine output to rise by 2.3% due to the ramp-up of new or expanded capacity around the globe, improved output from Chile, Peru and Zambia as well as a recovery of mining in Indonesia.
The growth in the refined production is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, as constrained availability of copper concentrates will partially offset higher output from scrap.
The ICSG now expects the global refined copper usage to rise by 2.1% to 28.7 million tons in 2026, compared with 3% in 2025, as consumption growth in China will slow down.
China accounts for 58% of the global refined copper usage.
"Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, with demand in other key copper-using regions remaining subdued, notably in the European Union and Japan," the ICSG said.
