To entice shoppers on Black Friday, major retail chains intend to showcase interactive products and experiences, including Ray Ban augmented-reality glasses, extra-extra-large TVs at electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY.N) and new spa services at U.S. department store chain Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N).
But with a shorter holiday season, retailers also were stocking plenty of basic favorites, such as Nike (NKE.N) fleece clothing at Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N) stores, and On Holding and Deckers Outdoor's (DECK.N) Hoka sneakers at Nordstrom locations.
A record 183.4 million people are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, up from 182 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation, a U.S. trade group. Executives from five U.S. specialty retail chains on Tuesday described plans to draw people to stores.
But executives at four retailers said in conference calls with investors that either they - or shoppers - were "cautious" or approaching the holidays "prudently." On the whole, retailers anticipate the slowest growth in holiday season sales since 2018 as shoppers continue to wrestle with high prices.
Shoppers are more likely to make only selective holiday-related purchases rather than splurge. Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman said shoppers will "price check" more frequently before actually making a purchase.
At Nordstrom, with 381 stores in the U.S., "we're hosting experiences and events to celebrate the holiday, from virtual events with fashion experts, to festive in-store experiences across the country like letters to Santa, Holiday Glam Up Days, the one-day-only Beauty Bash, and more," said President Peter Nordstrom. His brother, Nordstrom CEO Erik Nordstrom, cited slower October demand as a reason to keep expectations for the fourth quarter in check.
SHORTER SEASON
With just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas — five fewer than last year - retail executives are less exuberant in their outlook.
"We did want to be appropriately cautious given the two factors, one being just the uncertain macroeconomic environment and then also the fewer holiday days," Lauren Hobart, CEO of Dick's Sporting Goods, told investors in its third quarter conference call on Tuesday.
"People are waking up and talking to it. I'm hearing even people in my life talk about how, 'Oh, my gosh, Christmas is coming.' They have to quickly accelerate the gift buying," Hobart said. She said Dick's, which has 864 stores, strategically tweaked its inventory to stock more Nike (NKE.N) fleece clothing, a popular basic, in a variety of sizes and colors.
Clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.N) lifted its forecast for the holiday quarter, anticipating strong demand for sweaters, jeans, knit bottoms, and fleece products at its Gen-Z focused Hollister stores and millennial-focused Abercrombie stores.
Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said the electronics retailer is reintroducing both "Doorbuster" deals and a holiday gift ideas section on its website, featuring curated gift lists that include crafting and self-care products as well as travel and gaming items.
It is adding displays of extra-extra-large TVs over 97 inches, Ray-Ban AR glasses and the new Oura Ring, which provides personalized insights into sleep, stress and fitness, Barry said.
HIGH PRICES
Prices are somewhat high across a range of discretionary merchandise from jeans to shoes to phones, making the typical mall trip relatively expensive. Retailers that sell non-essential merchandise including sports equipment, furniture and home goods will have to lean on deep discounts, which could erode operating profits, according to S&P Global Ratings.
"It is possible that consumers will wait until the last minute to see if there are any bargains that emerge. If retailers don't discount items, then shoppers might opt for gift cards to help keep within their holiday budget," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, which has a stake in Walmart (WMT.N).
Struggling department store retailer Kohl's (KSS.N) on Tuesday provided a bleak outlook for the holiday quarter, anticipating a larger sales decline than previously expected.
Despite this, Kohl's said it had aggressive plans for the holiday, with plans to expand product selection including sweaters, fleece, stocking stuffers, toys, Sephora gift sets, box jewelry, and cold-weather bedding from brands like Cuddl Duds.
Outgoing CEO Tom Kingsbury said Kohl's would leverage influencers and social media marketing and lean into promotional materials such as flyers based on customer feedback.
It will also highly promote its Kohl's Cash rewards program - where shoppers earn cash back on every purchase - and offer more targeted promotions to its 4 million Kohl Rewards members.
Nordstrom, in contrast, lifted the lower-end of its annual sales forecast for the year. "The majority of the holiday season is in front of us. We feel really great about ... our holiday plans," said CEO Erik Nordstrom.
"The consumer is bifurcated but so are companies," said Jamie Meyers, senior analyst at Laffer Tengler Investments. "Those that pivot win, and those that don't get left in the dust."
