Investors in French luxury group LVMH (LVMH.PA) are eager for signs that China's new fiscal stimulus measures can finally pull wealthy and middle-class Chinese shoppers out of their funk, inspiring them to splash out on $4,300 designer leather handbags ahead of Singles Day, China's largest annual shopping spree.
Global luxury bellwether LVMH, whose portfolio spans Louis Vuitton and Dior fashion and accessories, Tiffany & Co jewellery and Sephora cosmetics, reports third-quarter revenue on Tuesday.
Global sales of personal high-end goods - spanning clothing, accessories and beauty products - this year will be between flat and 4% higher year-on-year, at constant rates, the consultancy Bain has previously said. The global slowdown is most marked in China as economic uncertainty weighs on middle-class shoppers and makes those who can still afford luxury cautious about ostentation.
LVMH shares, alongside peers Gucci-owner Kering(PRTP.PA), Hermes(HRMS.PA) and Richemont (CFR.S), owner of Cartier, have been on a roller coaster this year. "The luxury consumer is all shopped out," said analysts at Bank of America, citing especially a deterioration in sales to the Chinese, who were the main growth driver in the first half of the year.
Predicting the third-quarter will be the worst for the sector in four years, with a 1% decline in organic sales year-on-year, they also lowered estimates for earnings per share for next year by 17% on average.
Markus Hansen, a portfolio manager at Vontobel, which owns shares of LVMH, Hermes and Richemont, said a "lack of confidence" among Chinese shoppers persists following declines in the country's property market. If confidence returns, even slightly, luxury goods spending in China could become "quite powerful" again, Hansen said.
Analysts are confident that Chinese shoppers will regain their appetite for high-end fashion at some point, with Jefferies noting sector forecasts are already counting on a healthy acceleration in demand from Chinese in 2025.
Redoubling its efforts to expand its market share in China, LVMH recently deepened its partnership with Alibaba (9988.HK) to leverage the e-commerce firm's cloud and artificial intelligence capacities. LVMH's travel retail unit, DFS Group, is building a major shopping and entertainment complex on China's tax-free Hainan island.
Luxury goods are unlikely to be the next target of China's EU trade retaliation. But luxury goods companies are staring at possible 10% plunges in their China sales this year, compared to earlier projections of 5% to 6% sales growth, according Patrice Nordey, CEO of Shanghai-based innovation consultancy Trajectry. "The growth problem is everywhere, the top end consumers, the middle class, the Gen Z, travel retail -- there's too many problems for the brands to solve."
TD Cowen analysts on Thursday lowered their third quarter organic sales estimates for LVMH and its rival Kering to 2.9% and -10.4%, respectively, and for Richemont's second quarter, which ended in September, to 2%.
Kering, which reports sales on Oct. 23, gets a large proportion of its annual sales from China, primarily through its powerhouse Gucci brand, with the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan accounting for 35% of its revenue. Gucci's recent emphasis on "timeless" styles and less on trendy new fashions might not have been effective with shoppers who need exciting looks to open their wallets, Cowen said.
