Russia has significantly stepped up its online disinformation campaign in Poland, using a dispute between Warsaw and Kyiv over World War Two massacres to inflame tensions between Ukraine and its key ally, Polish officials and researchers say.
The messaging, mostly posted on social media accounts in Polish, also focuses on fomenting anger in Poland against refugees, as opinion polls show support for the far-right growing ahead of closely contested parliamentary elections in 2027.
The dispute intensified after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy named an army unit after insurgents who perpetrated the massacres, prompting hard-right President Karol Nawrocki to strip his Ukrainian counterpart of a top Polish honour in June.
Polish deputy digital minister Pawel Olszewski told Reuters the dispute saw Russian disinformation "explode" across social and official Russian media platforms, including Telegram, in posts later repeated by Polish outlets.
An analysis by the state-backed Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) found online anti-Ukrainian content in Polish on X, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube increased by more than 250% following Zelenskiy's naming of the army unit.
Much of the increase across those platforms and others appeared to be artificially generated through bot activity designed to create the impression of rapidly growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment, said PISM's Filip Bryjka.
The messaging focused largely on amplifying the controversy rather than disseminating false information, in what analysts said may be a new Russian disinformation tactic.
Moscow denies spreading disinformation and says Western leaders are intentionally exaggerating the threat from Russia for their own political ends.
"The Russian Federation does not interfere in the relations between other states," the Russian embassy in Warsaw said in an emailed statement, adding that accusations about Russia spreading disinformation to undermine support for Ukraine are baseless.
POLICY TOWARDS UKRAINIANS COULD INFLUENCE ELECTION
Because the underlying facts are often real, analysts say such campaigns are harder to identify and counter than conventional disinformation through fake news.
"The event is real, but the interpretation is imposed by an external actor," said Wojciech Pokora, analyst at Info Ops Poland Foundation, an independent research project.
Though Poland remains a staunch ally of Ukraine in its war against Russia, opinion polls show deteriorating support for Ukraine. An IBRiS poll published early last month found that 33.6% of respondents said their attitude towards Ukrainians had worsened following the dispute linked to World War Two.
A separate IBRiS survey published last month found support for continued military assistance to Ukraine had fallen to 52% from 78% in 2022.
Experts say negative sentiment towards Ukraine cannot be explained solely by foreign influence and also reflects weariness with an estimated 1.8 to 1.9 million Ukrainian migrants, disputes over grain imports and the legacy of the World War Two killings.
The flood of disinformation about the dispute has "fallen on fertile ground", the digital ministry's Olszewski said.
Ukrainians living in Poland have faced mounting hostility in recent months, prompting Prime Minister Donald Tusk to call for an end to xenophobic attacks.
Pollsters say policy towards Ukrainians could be a key election theme as polling suggests Tusk's pro-European government may struggle to retain power next year.
