Wall Street firms are expected to pay heftier bonuses for this year, the first increase since a bumper year in 2021, according to a report by compensation consultancy Johnson Associates.
Payouts will probably rise after financiers benefited from several factors in recent months: a recovery in dealmaking, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and equity markets surging to record highs, said the consultancy's founder, Alan Johnson.
"This year has been surprisingly good, and the industry is quite optimistic about 2025, especially with the potential of announcing more M&A deals," he said, referring to mergers and acquisitions.
While bonuses will be more generous, they will remain below the record levels from 2021, when revenue and compensation were "abnormally good," Johnson said.
Investment bankers in debt underwriting are projected to receive the biggest surge in bonuses of 25% to 35% for 2024, the estimates showed, buoyed by a resurgence of activity. Their counterparts in equity capital markets will likely get boosts of 15% to 25%.
Meanwhile, a slower recovery for M&A will result in more modest bonus increases of 5% to 10% for bankers advising on transactions.
Traders will also reap a windfall from more volatility and rising equities, the report showed. Equity sales and trading professionals can expect their bonuses to climb about 15% to 20%, while in fixed income, payouts will probably rise 5% to 10%.
But not all bankers will share in the recovery, the consultant said. Bonuses for retail and commercial bankers will probably decline or stay flat for the year.
