Brazil's central bank's director of economic policy said on Thursday that since their latest interest rate-setting meeting, policymakers have observed stronger economic growth in the country and the trends they had been monitoring have proven to be persistent.
Speaking at a UBS event, Diogo Guillen noted that the exchange rate "is a bit higher" than in July, while inflation expectations have remained broadly unchanged and de-anchored, a source of discomfort for the central bank.
Data released by Brazil's statistics agency this week showed stronger-than-expected activity in the second quarter, reinforcing market bets that had already pointed to the central bank raising rates at its upcoming Sept. 17-18 meeting.
Brazil's benchmark interest rate has been held steady at 10.50% since June.
After central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto said that any potential adjustment in borrowing costs would be gradual, Guillen noted that minutes from their last meeting had already shown policymakers discussing keeping rates unchanged for a sufficiently long time while stressing they would raise them if necessary.
"For me, this is already a strong indication that the start of the cycle would be gradual," he said.
Guillen added that the credibility of policymakers comes from doing what is necessary to bring inflation to its 3% target.
"I think it's much more about if the economic conditions ask for a cycle or not to get inflation into the target. And given that, we will have to do what we what we have to do," he said.
He emphasized that the strong commitment to achieving the inflation target is collective and "quite important," adding that there is a lot of cohesion within the rate-setting board (Copom) regarding their assessment of the domestic economy, external uncertainties, and the slowdown in global growth.
