Relentless heat and drought could halve this year's French maize harvest and reduce European Union production to its smallest in decades, analysts said, despite expectations that crops in Poland and Romania will hold up better.
The European Commission in late July cut its forecast for the 2026/27 EU maize (corn) harvest to 51.9 million metric tons, the lowest since 2007. But some analysts now expect output to fall below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s.
"Agronomically speaking, the (maize) situation in the EU is very bad," Expana analyst Gabriel Antonio said, adding the poor harvest outlook was set to raise EU imports sharply.
Weather has exacerbated the impact of lower planting, partly linked to fertiliser and energy costs.
In France, the agriculture ministry projects the maize crop will drop 35% from last year to 9 million tons. But Expana and Argus both expect output to fall by about half to less than 7 million tons, which would be the smallest harvest since 1976.
"Irrigation will salvage some of the crop. But I think production can go even lower, depending on how much area is diverted towards fodder," Argus analyst Maxence Devillers said.
With extreme weather drying out grassland, more farmers are expected to chop maize for livestock feed rather than harvest it for grain. Argus and growers' group AGPM say this could reduce grain maize area by several hundred thousand hectares.
Showers and cooler temperatures forecast next week will come too late for many crops, with harvesting expected to start unusually early this month, AGPM Chairman Franck Laborde said.
Germany’s grain maize crop has also suffered, with farm cooperatives association DRV on Thursday forecasting a 14% year-on-year drop in output to 4.24 million tons.
However, much will depend on rainfall in the coming weeks, and conditions could still improve before harvesting starts around October and November, it said.
POLAND COULD BE BIGGEST EU MAIZE GROWER
Poland could become the EU's largest maize producer this year, with output expected to hold near 9 million tons.
"At present, the overall condition of maize plantations in Poland isn't bad," Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska said, estimating output at 8.7 million to 9.0 million tons, compared with 8.9 million last year.
Timely July rain benefited northern and central regions, Sabaranski said, adding that forecast rainfall could help southern areas that received less moisture last month.
Romania could also help cushion the drop in EU output after heavy rainfall boosted yield prospects this year.
However, lower plantings are expected to limit production to around 8 million tons. Argus' Devillers said a dry August, which has contributed to record-low water levels on the Danube River, could further curb yield potential.
