There is an 80% chance that the El Nino weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring from March to May 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.
"Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased, but remained above-average, consistent with elevated subsurface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean" the Climate Prediction Center said.
El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts.
The naturally occurring phenomenon is already spurring calamities across the globe, with the stakes seen higher for emerging markets more exposed to swings in food and energy prices.
"Given the rampant oceanic warmth currently in place, it is widely believed that 2024 could be the warmest global year on record, possibly even warmer than what we’ve already seen in 2023," said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of the Chief Economist.
Last week, the Australian weather bureau reported an expansion in areas experiencing severe rainfall shortages following the driest September on record.
The Australian government projected a 41% decline in average farm incomes for the 2023–24 financial year due to EL Nino's impact.
"Stronger El Nino events increase the likelihood of El Nino-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally," the Climate Prediction Center said.
Meanwhile, India's government is set to restrict sugar exports after poor monsoon rains, broadcaster ET Now reported on Wednesday, citing agencies.
"Crop outcomes can sometimes be dictated by episodic events. In other words, crop yield can still be favorable in a drier-than-normal season if rains are timely, while yield can be cut due to a poorly timed heat wave in an otherwise favorable year," Rippey added.
