Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) on Thursday raised its full-year production forecast for the second time this year and beat analysts' estimates for second-quarter profit, as record production and stronger crude prices boosted earnings.
Canada's oil sands producers are benefiting from higher oil prices driven by supply concerns following months of conflict in the Middle East, while years of investment in low-cost operations continue to lift cash flow.
Strong demand for synthetic crude and tighter crude supplies have helped widen price premiums, with rivals Cenovus Energy <CVE.TO> and Imperial Oil (IMO.TO) more than doubling their second-quarter profits.
Canadian Natural's realized price for exploration and production liquids during the quarter jumped 51% from a year earlier to C$105.11 ($75.04) per barrel, while realized synthetic crude oil prices rose 44% to C$125.78 per barrel.
The company said synthetic crude traded at an average premium of $8.37 per barrel to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude during the period, up from $0.98 a year earlier, as stronger refinery demand, Middle East supply disruptions and weather-related production impacts in Western Canada tightened crude markets.
Canadian Natural now expects 2026 production to average between 1.637 million and 1.682 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up from its previous forecast of 1.615 million to 1.665 million boepd.
The company said it was benefiting from conventional drilling results and assets acquired during the second quarter.
The Calgary, Alberta-based company posted an adjusted profit of C$2.19 per share for the three months ended June 30, compared with analysts' average estimate of C$1.90 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.
The country's largest oil and gas producer said its quarterly output grew to 1.68 million boepd, from 1.42 million boepd a year earlier.
($1 = 1.4008 Canadian dollars)
