FedEx, in a bid to focus on its delivery business, spun off its trucking unit, FedEx Freight (FDXF.N), earlier this month. The slimmed-down company is under investor scrutiny to bolster profits and reduce costs.
U.S. logistics firms including UPS (UPS.N) and FedEx have been battling volume decline due to changing U.S. trade policies, while the Iran war has pushed fuel prices higher.
The loss of duty-free "de minimis" treatment for low-value e-commerce shipments tied to China-linked discount sellers such as Shein and Temu (PDD.O) has also weighed on volumes.
"We recognize FedEx could experience an overhang during the time it will take for the market to sort through the different moving pieces of the Freight spin-off and shift to a calendar year reporting period," J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note.
FedEx, a bellwether for global trade, forecast annual earnings of $16.90 to $18.10 per share, as it shifts its fiscal year to align with the calendar year from its previous May year-end.
Analysts have not yet built models that enable comparisons with the new forecast, which includes just its delivery operations.
"It will be difficult to judge numbers for a few quarters given the noise, but focus will be on fundamental debates," Morgan Stanley analysts said.
FedEx trades at 14.68 times projected 12-month forward earnings, slightly higher than UPS (UPS.N) at 14.05.
